A Simple Scenario-based Qualitative Model for Assessing Start-up Risks

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ISO 31000:2018 Risk Management Guidelines and COSO:2017 Enterprise Risk Management framework have two important and common characteristics. Firstly, they connect risks with business objectives. Secondly, they define risks as potential events that represent both positive and negative deviations from the expected. When a start-up company assesses its risks, the readily available source often consists of a blog-post on enterpreneurship that defines for instance 5, 10 or 15 potential events, which may represent negative consequences for its growth and development. Only some of these sources offer a classification of the risks so that the given start-up can see whether these risks are spread on different areas/dimensions or if they are accumulated in a few areas. To date, there are no easily available models which visualize the focus areas that the start-up ought to give priority to and treat with actions.This paper aims to contribute to solve the above-mentioned challenges by introducing a scenario-based model, which takes into account risks as well as opportunities in accordance with ISO 31000:2018. The model defines 4 complex risk dimensions/focus areas, each of them consisting of 10 elements and 60 potential scenarios. The scenarios are ranked in accordance with the degree of contribution to a start-up’s risks and opportunities. The results of the scenario analysis are summarized through the use of a likelihood barometer. The barometer visualises whether the start-up’s risks and opportunities are concentrated on one risk dimension, or whether these are spread on several dimensions. Thereafter, a traditional risk matrix is used to evaluate and rank the risks and opportunities which represent the highest negative and positive contributions to the start-up’s failure or success.

Y. Ayse B. Nordal
fotokred: qrn/Annlaug